This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
This book presents a contemporary view of the role of information quality in information fusion and decision making, and provides a formal foundation and the implementation strategies required for dealing with insufficient information quality in building fusion systems for decision making. Information fusion is the process of gathering, processing, and combining large amounts of information from multiple and diverse sources, including physical sensors to human intelligence reports and social media. That data and information may be unreliable, of low fidelity, insufficient resolution, contradictory, fake and/or redundant. Sources may provide unverified reports obtained from other sources resulting in correlations and biases. The success of the fusion processing depends on how well knowledge produced by the processing chain represents reality, which in turn depends on how adequate data are, how good and adequate are the models used, and how accurate, appropriate or applicable prior and contextual knowledge is. By offering contributions by leading experts, this book provides an unparalleled understanding of the problem of information quality in information fusion and decision-making for researchers and professionals in the field.
There has never been a time in human history with so much information as we have now, but also where people have felt so lost and so alone, and so deceived too. This is why this book is so important to you, who seek to find the truth and discover for yourself how to become a better human being, while accumulating everything the planet has to offer - its most outstanding knowledge and insights. For along the following chapters, you will learn how life can be organized properly and how you can follow the patterns shown here, based on sacred geometry, to discover more about your true identity while making decisions that can shift your existence towards a better outcome.
In 1934, eleven-year-old Shimon Peres emigrated to the land of Israel from his native Poland, leaving behind an extended family who would later be murdered in the Holocaust. Few back then would have predicted that this young man would eventually become one of the towering figures of the twentieth century. Peres would indeed go on to serve the new state as prime minister, president, foreign minister, and the head of several other ministries. He was central to the establishment of the Israeli Defense Forces and the defense industry that would provide the young state with a robust deterrent power. He was crucial to launching Israel´s nuclear energy program and to the creation of its high-tech ´´Start-up Nation´´ revolution. His refusal to surrender to conventional wisdom and political norms helped save the Israeli economy and prompted some of the most daring military operations in history, among them the legendary Operation Entebbe. And yet, as important as his role in creating and deploying Israel´s armed forces was, his stunning transition from hawk to dove-with its accompanying unwavering commitment to peace-made him one of the globe´s most recognized, honored, and admired statesmen. In this, his final work, finished only weeks before his passing, Peres offers a long-awaited examination of the crucial turning points in Israeli history through the prism of having been a decision maker and eyewitness. Told with the frankness of someone aware this would likely be his final statement, No Room for Small Dreams spans decades and events, but as much as it is about what happened, it is about why it happened. Examining pivotal moments in Israel´s rise, Peres explores what makes for a great leader, how to make hard choices in a climate of uncertainty and distress, the challenges of balancing principles with policies, and the liberating nature of imagination and unpredicted innovation. In doing so, he not only charts a better path forward for his beloved country but provides deep and universal wisdom for younger generations who seek to lead-be it in politics, business, or the broader service of making our planet a safer, more peaceful, and just place.
A fascinating exploration of how computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others.