This book departs from traditional decision analysis based on game theory and decision trees and addresses how policy proposals are made in the public arena, with reference to the social security reform process in Uganda. It analyses decision making and suggests that the mode of interaction between various actors affects the outcome and the nature of policy options. In this regard, three processes could be envisaged: a) Institutional, b) Strategic, c) Consensual. These processes may enable us capture patterns through which actors interact, choose, reject and accept policy options. These forms of interaction do not only inform policies, but also determine the nature of established policies. These patterns are not absolute in themselves, but together, they led to the twenty four policy proposals for reforming the social security and pensions sector in Uganda. This work provides powerful insights for public sector reformers, decision making analysts, graduate-level students, social security and pensions organisations, social security and pension reform consultants and scholars, as well as other professionals interested in decision analysis and pension reforms.
This book is designed to support you in making difficult decisions in a more - tional way. Based on an established theoretical foundation, it shows that simple requirements concerning rational behavior lead to a general calculus of determ- ing optimal decision alternatives; the book then goes on to present methods and instruments useful for the practical implementation of these concepts. Psychological research has uncovered a multitude of systematic cognitive - ases associated with the intuitive decision process, especially concerning the f- mation of preferences and subjective probability judgments for uncertain events. These developments have elevated prescriptive decision theory to the status of an important discipline with increasingly strong practical ties nowadays, even m- agers are concerned with decision trees, probability distributions and risk profiles. There is also a wide range of software available on the market to aid users with the use of the instruments. We would like to convince you, by help of the many pr- tical questions and case studies included with most chapters, that the material c- ered is not purely an academic diet but also of high practical nutritional value. The mindset suggested by the theory as an approach for decision problems will surely be of much use to you both in your private and professional life, even if you do not apply the presented methods of decision making support in every little - tail.
How do people decide what to do? What is the origin of judgment? These questions are fundamental both to individual psychology, and across the social sciences. Judgement and Decision Making bring together the classic works in the field of the past 50 years, both setting the field in historical and theoretical context, and outlining cutting edge research. The articles range across psychology, economics, sociology and neuroscience, and deals both with fundamental and applied research. Volume 1, Foundations, sets out core background material. Volume 2, Individual Decision Making, considers how people make choices, including choices between complex options, and choices involving risk and time. Volume 3, Probability and Judgment, considers how people reason with uncertainty, estimate frequencies, and determine degrees of confidence. Volume 4, Interactive and Group Processes, considers how people make decisions in social interactions, group decision making, and implications for economics and society. The collection is targeted and advanced undergraduates and graduate students in Psychology, Economics, and Business, and provides a foundation for students and practioners in cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, behavioural finance, neuroeconomics, and marketing.
Unlike other publications on decision making, the book focuses on discovering the problem, analyzing it and on developing and assessing solution options.One whole chapter describes a case study. It illustrates how the proposed decision making procedure is used in practice.Executives get an approach to systematically and successfully solving complex problems.
If you aren´t using the term naturalistic decision making, or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing. Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today´s work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes. This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.
Medical Decision Making provides clinicians with a powerful framework for helping patients make decisions that increase the likelihood that they will have the outcomes that are most consistent with their preferences. This new edition provides a thorough understanding of the key decision making infrastructure of clinical practice and explains the principles of medical decision making both for individual patients and the wider health care arena. It shows how to make the best clinical decisions based on the available evidence and how to use clinical guidelines and decision support systems in electronic medical records to shape practice guidelines and policies. Medical Decision Making is a valuable resource for all experienced and learning clinicians who wish to fully understand and apply decision modelling, enhance their practice and improve patient outcomes. ´´There is little doubt that in the future many clinical analyses will be based on the methods described in Medical Decision Making, and the book provides a basis for a critical appraisal of such policies.´´ - Jerome P. Kassirer M.D., Distinguished Professor, Tufts University School of Medicine, US and Visiting Professor, Stanford Medical School, U
Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.
Linear programming (LP), modeling, and optimization are very much the fundamentals of OR, and no academic program is complete without them. No matter how highly developed ones LP skills are, however, if a fine appreciation for modeling isnt developed to make the best use of those skills, then the truly best solutions are often not realized, and efforts go wasted. Katta Murty studied LP with George Dantzig, the father of linear programming, and has written the graduate-level solution to that problem. While maintaining the rigorous LP instruction required, Murty´s new book is unique in his focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision making for complex real world problems. He describes the approach as ´intelligent modeling and decision making´ to emphasize the importance of employing the best expression of actual problems and then applying the most computationally effective and efficient solution technique for that model.
This book offers a simple introduction to the fundamentals and applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) without a pre-requisite for a sophisticated mathematical background. It provides a quick and intuitive understanding of the methodology using spreadsheet examples and explains in a step-by-step fashion how to use Super Decisions, a freely available software developed by the Creative Decisions Foundations. The book is intended to be a resource for decision makers with little or no exposure to the field of Operations Research (OR); however, the book can be used as a very gentle introduction to the AHP methodology and/or as an AHP hands-on supplement for standard OR textbooks. AHP is an intuitive and mathematically simple methodology in the field of multi-criteria decision making. Because of this, most AHP books assume the reader has basic OR mathematical background. However, AHP simplicity suggests that decision makers from all disciplines can take advantage of the methodology without struggling with the mathematics behind it. To fulfill this need, this book delivers a quick and practical understanding of the method that can be useful for corporate executives.
This book provides a systematic introduction to linguistic aggregation operators, linguistic preference relations, and various models and approaches to multi-attribute decision making with linguistic information. Offers practical examples, tables and figures.